How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Joshua Hale
Joshua Hale

A passionate astrophysicist and writer, sharing discoveries and thoughts on the universe's mysteries.