From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”